My Picks for the 94th Academy Awards

 

Well, it is once again that time of year: the 94th Academy Awards will be airing this Sunday, March 27 (delayed from its normal late February spot for the second year in a row) on ABC. Now, most of those who know me know that, in addition being a complete cinephile, I am also a giant nerd when it comes to the Oscars. They have been an event equivalent to the Super Bowl in my house for as long as I can remember, and I have faithfully watched the telecast and filled out a prediction ballot every year since I was ten years old. By the time I got to high school, this love for the Oscars was noticed enough that I got a yearly spot on my school's news program making my predictions (this was in addition to my normal slot reviewing movies that gave this blog its name), and for the last four years, I made yearly appearances on Ron Harlow's radio show making my picks as well. And while I won't be on CPTV or Ron Harlow Media this year, enough people have expressed interest in hearing my picks for this year's Oscars that I decided to share them on here.

Now, just a fair warning: while some people like to praise me for generally being in the ballpark when it comes to my predictions, I have never won my family's Oscar pool in the fifteen years I've participated in it, so I would not be surprised if I once again get at least one or two of the major categories wrong. But it's still fun to make predictions (especially since I have a pretty vast knowledge of Oscar history/statistics/etc.), so let's get going!

BEST PICTURE:

• Belfast
• CODA
• Don't Look Up
• Drive My Car
• Dune
• King Richard
• Licorice Pizza
• Nightmare Alley
• The Power of the Dog
• West Side Story

So as per usual, I have seen all ten films nominated in the Best Picture category this year, and with the exception of Don't Look Up (which is a smug, pretentious, insanely heavy-handed diatribe with a great all-star cast but not much else), this is an incredibly strong lineup. And also as (mostly) per usual, it has been a lot of fun watching this race play out in the last few weeks. Now, if you had asked me just a couple days before I wrote this, I would have told you Jane Campion's magnificent revisionist Western The Power of the Dog was my pick to win; after all, it's been the frontrunner basically all season, it's the film with the most overall nominations this year, and it seems to have strong support from international voters, which make up an increasingly large block of the Academy's voting body.

However, there is one film that has really been surging as of late, and that is Sian Heder's Sundance hit and tear-jerking crowd-pleaser CODA. Now, if you had asked me over a year ago when I first saw CODA as a part of the 2021 virtual Sundance Film Festival if I thought it could pull off a Best Picture Oscar win over a year later, I would have laughed in your face and said 'no'. Small crowd-pleasing indie films that premiere at Sundance and then get released over the summer don't have the legs necessary to even get nominated for, let alone win, a Best Picture Oscar. In fact, no film that has premiered at the Sundance Film Festival has ever won Best Picture. But that may finally change this year. 

When the nominations were announced a month-and-a-half ago and CODA ended up with three (Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor for Troy Kotsur, and Best Adapted Screenplay), most people (myself included) were happy to see CODA among them but never thought it would come close to winning anything except Supporting Actor (which we'll get to later). But then the Screen Actors Guild Awards came along and CODA won Best Ensemble in a major upset, potentially signaling a Spotlight or Moonlight or Parasite-style upset for Best Picture. And then, just this past weekend, the Producers Guild Awards happened and CODA won Best Motion Picture there, a precursor award that a whopping 22 of the 33 last Best Picture winners won first. And not only that, but only three films since 2009 (when the Oscars expanded the number of Best Picture nominees to 10 and introduced the preferential ballot system of voting) have also won both top SAG and PGA Awards: The King's Speech, Argo, and Birdman, and all three of those films went onto win Best Picture at the Oscars. 

So while The Power of the Dog could very well power through to a Best Picture victory on the strength of its international/craftspeople support, as of right now, the odds seem to be in CODA's favor. And beyond just precursor and historical statistics, the preferential ballot has shown to favor crowd-pleasing films in recent years, with the warm, crowd-pleasing Green Book upsetting that year's frontrunner Roma on the strength of its #2 and #3 votes. And with the current horrific events in Ukraine dominating the news cycle, it's not much of a surprise that Oscar voters may want to reward a film that makes them feel good (like when Chicago won Best Picture over The Pianist in 2003, right as the U.S. was invading Iraq), and for many, CODA does just that.

MY PICK: CODA

BEST DIRECTOR:

• Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
• Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car
• Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
• Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
• Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

Despite the Best Picture race now being a toss-up between CODA and The Power of the Dog (with CODA having the most momentum right now), there is at least one award that The Power of the Dog can count on winning, and that is Best Director for Jane Campion. Having been a trailblazing female filmmaker for decades now, ever since her 1993 film The Piano made her the first woman to receive the Palme d'Or and the second woman to be nominated for Best Director (she won for Best Original Screenplay), many consider it past time for her to receive recognition as a true auteur director, and the accolades she's been cleaning up for her work on this film only reinforce that fact. And whatever issues some may have with The Power of the Dog overall, unless you're Sam Elliott, there is no denying the magnificent work that Campion does crafting this film, from the majestic visual portrait of the Old West to the performances she gets out of the entire ensemble. So unless one of the other four can pull off a stunning upset (which Branagh is probably the only one who even has a slight chance), Jane Campion will be the third woman to win the Best Director Oscar.

MY PICK: Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog

BEST ACTOR:

• Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos as Desi Arnaz
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog as Phil Burbank
• Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick... Boom! as Jonathan Larson
• Will Smith – King Richard as Richard Williams
• Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth as Lord Macbeth

Although many of the same people championing Campion's inevitable Best Director victory will also tell you that Benedict Cumberbatch's terrifying lead performance was equally important in The Power of the Dog being as great as it was, unless that film pulls off a stunning sweep, Cumberbatch will most likely lose this category to Will Smith, for his career performance as the father of tennis legends Venus and Serena Williams in King Richard. One of the surprising things about this awards season is how many people are unaware that Will Smith has never won an Oscar; and in fact, that he's only been nominated twice before, for his performances in Ali and The Pursuit of Happyness. And much like Leonardo DiCaprio did with his performance in The Revenant that finally got him an Oscar, Smith clearly threw everything he had into this performance with the hopes of finally seeing Hollywood recognize him for his legitimate acting abilities rather than simply his ability to generate box office. And considering that Smith has won all the major precursors, and would be the first Black actor to win in this category since Forest Whitaker won fifteen years ago for The Last King of Scotland, come Sunday night, we all should finally be able to add "Academy Award winner" to Will Smith's list of career accomplishments.

MY PICK: Will Smith for King Richard

BEST ACTRESS:

• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye as Tammy Faye Bakker
• Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter as Leda Caruso
• Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers as Janis Martínez Moreno
• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos as Lucille Ball
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer as Diana, Princess of Wales

While Will Smith has been the frontrunner all season in the Best Actor category, until the SAG Awards happened, there was no clear frontrunner in this category. While myself and many others who saw Spencer were championing Kristen Stewart for her astonishing transformation into Princess Diana in that film, she was not nominated for the SAG Award, and no one has won in this category since 1994 without first being nominated for the SAG. So this left Jessica Chastain, Olivia Colman, and Nicole Kidman as the three nominated both for the Oscar and the SAG Awards, and since Chastain ended up breaking through the wide-open field and winning the SAG for her spot-on transformation into televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker, she has quickly become the frontrunner for the Oscar. And unlike Colman and Kidman, she has never won an Oscar since her breakthrough in the early 2010s, when she received nominations for The Help and Zero Dark Thirty, and her performance as Tammy Faye Bakker is the sort of performance tailor-made for Oscar consideration, so unless Colman or Kidman or even Stewart can pull off a shocking upset, this is clearly Chastain's to lose.

MY PICK: Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

• Ciarán Hinds – Belfast as Pop
• Troy Kotsur – CODA as Frank Rossi
• Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog as George Burbank
• J. K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos as William Frawley
• Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog as Peter Gordon

Similar to when Jessica Chastain broke through the field and became the frontrunner after the SAG Awards were handed out, Troy Kotsur, a deaf stage actor who many had never even heard of before this awards season, won the Supporting Actor SAG for his powerful and, at times, heartbreaking performance as the main character's father in CODA, and has quickly become a lock to win the Oscar. Only one deaf actor has ever won an Oscar before (Kotsur's on-screen spouse Marlee Matlin for Children of a Lesser God back in 1986), so Kotsur would become the first deaf male actor to win an Oscar, an opportunity to make history the Academy will likely not want to pass up. So unless early favorite Kodi Smit-McPhee can find a way to sneak up and steal it, this is Troy Kotsur's on a walk.

MY PICK: Troy Kotsur for CODA

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

• Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter as Young Leda Caruso
• Ariana DeBose – West Side Story as Anita
• Judi Dench – Belfast as Granny
• Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog as Rose Gordon
• Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard as Oracene "Brandy" Price

Like Troy Kotsur, this category's far-and-out frontrunner -- Ariana DeBose for her lively show-stealing performance as the famed Anita in Steven Spielberg's West Side Story -- is someone that many people had probably never even heard of before this awards season unless you follow Broadway, where she acted in the Hamilton ensemble and was Tony-nominated for playing Disco Donna in Summer: The Donna Summer Musical. And much like previous newcomers who have won in this category (i.e., Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls and Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave), DeBose has made an immediate impression on both critics and audiences who have seen West Side Story as well as awards voters, as she garnered a BAFTA, Critic's Choice Award, and that all-important SAG Award. And coming sixty years after the legendary Rita Moreno won this same award for playing the same character in the original West Side Story adaptation, the chance for the torch to be officially passed is an opportunity too good for the Academy to pass up...so yeah, not much of a contest here.

MY PICK: Ariana DeBose for West Side Story

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

• Belfast – Kenneth Branagh
• Don't Look Up – Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay and David Sirota
• King Richard – Zach Baylin
• Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson
• The Worst Person in the World – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier

If all four of the acting categories (plus Best Director) are pretty solid locks now, the two screenplay categories are genuine toss-ups, especially this one. For most of this awards season, I was dead-set on Licorice Pizza being a lock here. Not only is it simply my Favorite Film of 2021, but Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated eleven times without a single win, and he has been long overdue for an Oscar. However, the film's recent snub at the Writers Guild of America Awards in favor of (stunningly) Don't Look Up has caused to go down in the odds slightly, and that has actually allowed Belfast to rise in the odds, because although it was not nominated at the WGA (due to Branagh not being in the Writers Guild), it won the Critic's Choice and is widely believed to be a compromise pick due to both Licorice Pizza and Don't Look Up being relatively polarizing (although the Licorice Pizza backlash is insanely stupid and unwarranted, if you ask me). And since "safe" picks like Green Book and Manchester by the Sea (among others) tend to fare well in this category when there isn't an out-and-out frontrunner, I am going with Belfast here, although I will be absolutely ecstatic if the Academy finally decides to wise up and give Paul Thomas Anderson a freaking Oscar. :)

MY PICK: Belfast by Kenneth Branagh

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

• CODA – Sian Heder; based on the original motion picture screenplay La Famille Bélier written by Victoria Bedos, Thomas Bidegain, Stanislas Carré de Malberg and Éric Lartigau
• Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe; based on the short story by Haruki Murakami
• Dune – Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth; based on the novel by Frank Herbert
• The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal; based on the novel by Elena Ferrante
• The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion; based on the novel by Thomas Savage

While not as much of a nail-biter as the Original Screenplay category, this category very much mirrors the Best Picture horse race between CODA and The Power of the Dog. Once again, for much of this season, I expected The Power of the Dog to be a lock in this category, but following CODA's general surge in the awards season, and especially its Adapted Screenplay with at the Writers Guild Awards, that has now taken over as the frontrunner from my perspective. But ultimately, much like Green Book's screenplay win three years ago foreshadowed its Best Picture win, whichever film wins this category will most likely also win Best Picture, and for right now, all signs are pointing to CODA doing just that.

MY PICK: CODA

_____________________________________________________________________________________

And, for those interested, here are my picks in all of the other categories:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

• *Encanto
• Flee
• Luca
• The Mitchells vs. the Machines
• Raya and the Last Dragon

 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• *Dune
• Nightmare Alley
• The Power of the Dog
• The Tragedy of Macbeth
• West Side Story

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• *Cruella
• Cyrano
• Dune
• Nightmare Alley
• West Side Story

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• *Dune
• Nightmare Alley
• The Power of the Dog
• The Tragedy of Macbeth
• West Side Story

 

BEST EDITING

• Don’t Look Up
• *Dune
• King Richard
• The Power of the Dog
• Tick, Tick … Boom!

 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

• Coming 2 America
• Cruella
• Dune
• *The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• House of Gucci

 

BEST SOUND

• Belfast
• *Dune
• No Time to Die
• The Power of the Dog
• West Side Story

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• *Dune
• Free Guy
• No Time to Die
• Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
• Spider-Man: No Way Home

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Don’t Look Up
• *Dune
• Encanto
• Parallel Mothers
• The Power of the Dog

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• “Be Alive” (King Richard)
• *“Dos Oruguitas” (Encanto)
• “Down to Joy” (Belfast)
• “No Time to Die” (No Time to Die)
• “Somehow You Do” (Four Good Days)

 

 BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• Ascension
• Attica
• Flee
• *Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
• Writing With Fire

 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

• Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, Bhutan
• Flee, Denmark
• The Hand of God, Italy
• *Drive My Car, Japan
• The Worst Person in the World, Norway

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

• Affairs of the Art
• Bestia
• BoxBallet
• *Robin Robin
• The Windshield Wiper

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

• Audible
• Lead Me Home
• *The Queen of Basketball
• Three Songs for Benazir
• When We Were Bullies

 

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

• The Dress
• *The Long Goodbye
• On My Mind
• Please Hold
• Ala Kachuu — Take and Run